Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update:

No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update:

Bitcoin finally showed some strength. I expected this move a few weeks ago, but it took longer than anticipated. Price is now approaching the short-term holder cost basis. This is an important level. I still expect Bitcoin to face resistance here, as many recent buyers will look to exit around breakeven. From here, my base case remains a move lower, eventually targeting below $55k. These things take time to play out. If Bitcoin manages to hold above $80k for a sustained period, days to weeks, then I will reassess my thesis. The downside of being wrong here is opportunity cost. The upside is preserving capital and waiting for a better entry.

Until then, the plan remains the same:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

If I were currently positioned, I would likely be taking some profits or tightening risk. The risk-reward here is not attractive enough to justify holding exposure. The odds are skewed to the downside.

Education of the Week — Global Liquidity

Bitcoin is a non-sovereign monetary asset. In simple terms, that means no single country or central authority can control its supply. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed at will, Bitcoin’s supply is fixed and fully predictable. This puts Bitcoin in the same category as assets like gold. They are global, scarce, and not tied to any single government. What matters then is not supply, but demand. And demand is heavily influenced by global liquidity.

Global liquidity refers to how much money is available in the financial system. When central banks expand the money supply, through policies like quantitative easing or lower interest rates, more capital flows into markets. That capital needs a place to go, and it often ends up in assets like equities, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.

When liquidity increases, asset prices tend to rise. When liquidity tightens, the opposite happens. This is why Bitcoin, despite its fixed supply, is still highly sensitive to macro conditions. It does not exist in isolation. It reacts to the amount of money available globally. This is also where the halving cycle and liquidity begin to overlap. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycles have coincided with periods of expanding liquidity. Whether that is coincidence or causation is still up for debate, but it is something I am paying close attention to.

As Bitcoin matures, I expect global liquidity to become a more important driver than the halving itself. Right now, we are not in a strong liquidity expansion phase. Central banks are not aggressively printing, and financial conditions remain relatively tight. That is one of the reasons I remain patient. When liquidity and on-chain signals begin to align, that is typically when the best opportunities appear.

Until then, the framework remains unchanged.

The plan stays the same.

Trilux