Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update:

No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update:

 Bitcoin is still trading around its short-term holder realized cost and has now been sitting near that level for about two weeks. My base case remains the same. I still expect further downside. That said, I also need to respect what price is doing. If Bitcoin stays above $80k for another two to three weeks, or if it starts pushing above $90k, I will need to reassess the plan. A full shift in market structure would still require a move above $98k in my framework. But holding above $80k for long enough, or moving toward $90k, would be an early sign that Bitcoin may be trying to change direction.

Until then, the plan remains the same:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

Education of the Week — When to Change Plans

Market views should be held with conviction, but loosely. A plan needs enough confidence to be followed, but enough flexibility to change when new data appears. That is the reality of investing. Markets are not about predicting the future with certainty. They are about putting the odds in one direction or another based on the information available at the time.

A useful analogy is sailing. A captain leaves with a route in mind. The weather, wind, tides, and conditions are checked before departure. But once the boat is on the water, the route still needs to adjust. If the wind changes or the sea becomes rough, the original route may no longer be optimal. The captain adjusts from the current position, not from the point of departure.

Investing works the same way. The original plan matters, but it should never become a prison. If the market provides new information, the plan needs to be reviewed from where things currently stand.

There is always a cost to every plan. If capital stays in cash and Bitcoin keeps moving higher, the cost is opportunity. Some upside is missed. If capital is deployed too early and Bitcoin breaks lower, the cost is drawdown. Capital is lost. The decision is about which cost is more acceptable under the current conditions.

Right now, I am still more comfortable accepting opportunity cost than downside risk. That may change if Bitcoin continues to hold strength, but we are not there yet.

For now, the plan stays the same.

Trilux