Hello everyone and welcome to the fourth edition of the weekly market insights.

Portfolio Update:

I was stopped out of my Chainlink position, following the plan laid out in Market Insight 1. The stop worked exactly as intended.
While it’s disappointing to no longer hold LINK, especially since I still see long-term potential, the recent price action has been weak. Exiting the position reduces risk, which is the priority right now. There’s nothing further to do on LINK for the moment.
Our remaining positions in Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, and Ripple are still open. Overall, I still believe higher prices are likely later this year, even though recent performance has not met expectations. The plan remains unchanged, and the risk-reward profile is still favorable.
From here, I see three possible scenarios:

1. Prices recover and move higher, validating the thesis. In that case, I'm already well positioned.

2. Stops are hit across remaining positions. This would mean the thesis is wrong and crypto is facing asset-specific risk. Losses would be capped at roughly 5% of the portfolio. Unfortunate, but that is part of disciplined investing.

3. Bitcoin briefly breaks below $80k, triggers stops, then quickly reverses and closes the week above $80k.This setup has historically resulted in a full reversal every time over the past five years and would significantly increase confidence that a cycle low is in. In that case, I would re-enter positions. This would be the most frustrating scenario, as it requires exiting and then immediately buying back in.

Market Update:

Following last week’s insight, the TACO trade proved to be the right call, and Trump has since backed away from the Greenland annexation narrative. While this may carry longer-term implications, the immediate risk overhang has been removed, even if political uncertainty continues to delay the shift from improving fundamentals to renewed risk appetite.
The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. Disinflation is progressing, growth remains resilient, and global liquidity conditions are turning more favorable. Hard assets are already reflecting this environment, with gold up 17% year to date and silver up 46%. Crazy moves by any standard.
Bitcoin should belong in this category as well. The setup is improving, but patience is still required.

Education of the week:

This week I want to introduce on-chain analysis, focusing specifically on Bitcoin.
At its core, Bitcoin is a transparent ledger. This means we can track every movement of coins on the network. More importantly, we can observe how different types of investors buy and sell, and derive indicators from that behavior.
There are many ways to look at on-chain data, but I like to group indicators into long-term and short-term signals.This week I’ll focus on just one long-term indicator I’m watching closely. I’ll cover the second one next week.

Long-Term Holder Supply Net Position Change
Long-term holders are investors who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more. Historically, investors who hold for this long tend to hold through volatility and sell only when conditions are attractive.
The supply net position change tracks how much BTC is added to or removed from long-term holder wallets over a rolling 30-day period.

• Blue means long-term holders are accumulating

• Red means long-term holders are distributing (selling)

  
  

  

In December, we saw the largest long-term holder distribution on record, which contributed to the sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price.
The last time we saw a similarly extreme negative reading was in 2019, near the $3,000 bottom, before Bitcoin went on to rally toward $12,000 over the following six months. Today, this indicator has flipped back to net accumulation, meaning long-term holders are once again adding to their positions.

That’s all for now. Same plan, same discipline.

Trilux