Hello everyone and welcome to the six edition of the weekly market insights.

Portfolio Update:
No Update.

Market Update:

Well, this move was clearly unexpected. Despite data pointing higher, including improving U.S. liquidity, ISM rising above 50 for the first time in over three years, and on-chain metrics signaling seller exhaustion, Bitcoin and crypto continued to sell off. Equities and commodities moved higher, but Bitcoin closed the week well below my $80k threshold and briefly dipped to $60k without triggering any buy signals. As a result, we now move to Scenario 3, where the focus shifts to a potential downside extension toward $50k.

While the macro backdrop remains supportive, crypto-specific risk is now impossible to ignore. Bitcoin’s break below $70k, the prior cycle all-time high, technically opens the door to further structural weakness. Bullish news has failed to impact price, which is a clear warning sign. Given this setup, the safer assumption is that we are in a bear market until proven otherwise. Rallies should be treated as short-term counter-trend moves, not signals of a lasting recovery, unless price realigns with macro conditions.

If you’ve read my full strategy, this is the part where I was positioned at the right lake, at the right time, with the right lure, but no fish were biting. The positive takeaway is risk management. My stop loss avoided an additional 20 percent drawdown. The portfolio is now down about 5 percent, compared to roughly minus 25 percent for Bitcoin, with 100 percent allocated to cash.

So what now?

I’m staying flat above $55k, no action for now. But I’m preparing to re-enter if Bitcoin enters what I define as the deep value zone. Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom around 80 percent below its all-time high, usually about a year later. If that repeats, it would imply a potential low near $25k sometime in October. That is a rough estimate, not a prediction. Market history does not repeat exactly, but it often rhymes.

That said, I do not expect Bitcoin to reach $25k. My best guess is that $40k could be a more realistic low. Still, I would be happy to buy anywhere between $55k and $25k, with the lower the better. The key point is that we cannot know how low it will go. What I do know is that starting to buy at $55k and continuing if price goes lower has historically been the best approach when entering a deep value zone. In my framework, Bitcoin below $55k qualifies as deep value.

My plan

I’m watching Bitcoin’s realized cost, which I’ll cover in more detail in a future "education of the week." In short, buying below realized price has historically meant buying close to major bottoms. The current realized cost is around $55k. While price can dip below this level and remain there for a while, it is still one of the most reliable markers of long-term value.

Given that, I plan to start dollar-cost averaging below $55k. I will allocate 100 percent of capital gradually from the first entry through October. If that period spans 10 weeks, I would deploy about 10 percent per week. I would accelerate that pace if my buy signals trigger.

What would invalidate the bear case? A weekly close above $98k. At that point, I would consider Bitcoin to have realigned with the macro backdrop and reassess positioning. It is a wide range, but that is the reality of managing risk in a volatile asset. In investing, it is important to hold strong convictions loosely and be willing to update views as new information comes in.

In summary

• Start DCA below $55k in the deep value zone

• Re-evaluate if Bitcoin closes above $98k

Why DCA now instead of using stop losses?

Below $55k, I believe Bitcoin is in a long-term value zone. Historically, these levels have often marked major bottoms. That does not mean price cannot go lower or stay volatile, but it does mean the long-term risk-reward improves as price falls. The further it drops, the more favorable the setup becomes.

This is different from the entry I made in Market Insight 1. Back then, I was expecting to catch a retracement in an uptrend. That type of setup needs tighter stops and a more active risk approach. Now, the objective is to build a position in what I consider a high-value zone. I do not need to be precise. DCA smooths the entry, reduces stress, and keeps me well-positioned if the market turns.

That is the plan.

Trilux