Hello everyone and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update

No update. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update

Bitcoin still has not shown much follow-through. Last week it tried to push higher, but the move faded and price slipped back into the sub-$70k range. The key question now is whether Bitcoin still has the momentum to continue higher, as I have been expecting, or whether last week’s attempt was the peak before another move lower.

Back in December, Bitcoin spent roughly eight weeks moving sideways before eventually breaking down. We are about four weeks into the current range. A few more weeks of consolidation before the next leg would not be unusual.

For now, the framework remains unchanged:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in.

• Above $55k, patience.

A weekly close above $98k would invalidate the current thesis. Until then, there is no reason to adjust positioning.

Education of the Week — Markets Don’t Care About Events

A lot of people tend to assign big headlines, especially geopolitical ones, as clear positives or negatives for markets. In reality, they rarely tell you much about where price is heading. The table below makes this clear. Across major events since 2020, Bitcoin’s reactions have been inconsistent. Some shocks were followed by strong rallies. Others by sharp sell-offs. Most simply created volatility before the previous trend continued.

The takeaway is simple: events can move markets in the moment and usually increase volatility, but they rarely define the medium-term direction. That direction is almost always driven by larger forces, such as macro liquidity and on-chain flows.

Right now, macro remains supportive while on-chain data does not. I expect that to shift once Bitcoin reaches what I consider the deep-value zone and larger investors begin stepping back in. When on-chain starts to realign with macro, that is usually when the next durable uptrend can form.

The plan stays the same.

Trilux