Hello everyone and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update

No update. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update

Bitcoin appears largely unfazed by the Middle East conflict. Gold and oil reacted with volatility, while Bitcoin remained relatively flat. That is interesting. A few insights ago, I pointed out that positive news was failing to push price higher. Now we are seeing the opposite dynamic. Negative headlines are not causing meaningful downside follow-through. Sometimes how price reacts to news matters more than the news itself.

Because of this, and as I have been saying for a few weeks now, I do expect a short-term bounce at some point. Bear markets often produce relief rallies before the broader trend resumes lower. I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin back above $70k in the coming weeks before eventually moving below $60k.

However, the risk-reward here is not attractive enough for me to act. Back in January, the setup was clear. Now, if a bounce comes, it would likely be a counter-trend move within a broader corrective phase. That makes the upside limited and the risk-reward unattractive.

So I wait.

The framework remains unchanged:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in.

• Above $55k, patience.

A weekly close above $98k would invalidate the current thesis. Until then, there is no reason to adjust positioning.

Education of the Week — Patience as a Position

One of the hardest things in investing is doing nothing. When price has not reached the level you are targeting, or when the market moves higher without you, the temptation is to act. But acting without an edge is the fastest way to lose capital. An edge is what separates investing from gambling. Without it, you might as well be in a casino.

Waiting for your edge to appear is paradoxically the hardest part of the process, yet it is also one of the most constructive for long-term returns. Being out of the market is still a position. It protects capital, reduces stress, and allows you to act when conditions turn in your favor.

Short update this week. The framework remains intact. Same discipline.

Trilux