Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update

No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update

The past week has been noisy. The conflict in Iran continues to be the main driver of market movements, while Trump's tweets add short-term volatility in either direction depending on his latest comments. Price action has been choppy, but zooming out on higher timeframes, the bigger picture remains unchanged.

My broader view is the same as before. I do not expect Bitcoin to sustain a move above $80k, and I still anticipate a revisit of lower levels before any durable uptrend can take hold. As outlined in previous updates, the framework hasn't shifted:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

Education of the Week — Short-Term Holders and Resistance

Last week I covered the MVRV indicator and why Bitcoin looks closer to the bottom than the top from a valuation perspective. I want to build on that with a concept called the short-term holder realised cost. It's the average entry price of everyone who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days (i.e. short-term holders) who tend to be highly sensitive to price movements. It's actually the same "realised cost" sitting underneath the MVRV ratio (the denominator), and it translates MVRV into an actual price level. Right now, the short-term MVRV is below 1, meaning the average recent buyer is underwater. That translates to a specific level you can act on: $86k.

Think about it from a psychological angle. When price drops below where you bought in, it's uncomfortable. And when it starts climbing back up, the first instinct is often to sell the moment you're back at breakeven. Not because your view changed, but simply to get out without a loss. That impulse is incredibly common, and it creates real selling pressure.

This is why any move back toward $86k would likely trigger many short-term holders to exit at breakeven. That's what makes the STH realised cost act as resistance in a downtrending market and why I believe there's still room to the downside. Short-term strength is still possible. But structurally, supply remains overhead and the market hasn't fully reset yet.

I'm still of the view that we won't go above $80k. A reclaim and sustained hold above the STH realised cost of $86k would be the first real sign of a trend reversal. Beyond that, I'm using $98k as my line in the sand for a confirmed bullish structural shift.

That is why I remain patient and keep dry powder.

The plan stays the same.

Trilux