Hello everyone and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update
No update. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update

Bitcoin is still trading below $65k, and the broader framework remains unchanged.
- Below $55k, I begin scaling in.
- Above $55k, I stay patient.
A short-term bounce would not surprise me. In bear phases, relief rallies are common. They often create the impression that the correction is over before the broader trend resumes. Whether that happens or not does not change the plan. As mentioned previously, a weekly close above $98k would invalidate the current framework. Until then, there is no reason to adjust positioning. For now, patience is the position.

Education of the Week — Why DCA Fits This Environment

Last week, I explained why I view sub-$55k as a deep value zone based on Bitcoin’s realized cost. Historically, price trading below realized cost has occurred near major cycle lows, when most weaker holders have already sold and long-term accumulation begins. That framework has not changed. This week, I want to clarify why I plan to use dollar-cost averaging if we enter that zone, instead of trying to time a single entry.

In Market Insight 1, I was buying a retracement within what I believed was an uptrend. That required tighter stops and more active risk management. This situation is different. If Bitcoin enters sub-$55k territory, the objective shifts from timing a bounce to building a position in what I consider a long-term value area. When I refer to a value area, I mean this: price is trading below the average cost basis of all holders. Most short-term participants have already exited, and long-term holders are under pressure. Historically, that combination has marked periods where downside begins to compress relative to long-term upside.

I believe Bitcoin will trade materially higher than $55k over the coming years. Buying below that level improves the long-term risk-reward. The lower the entry, the stronger the potential upside relative to the remaining downside. Spreading the investment over time changes the psychology. If I deployed all capital at once and price moved lower, the drawdown would feel immediate. With DCA, lower prices allow me to improve my average entry. The mindset shifts from defending a single price to building exposure gradually.

This does not remove risk. Price can overshoot and remain volatile. But historically, gradual accumulation in value zones has been more effective, both in terms of returns and in managing stress.
That is why DCA fits this environment.

Short update this week. The framework remains intact. Same discipline.

Trilux