Market/Indicator Update

One of the big themes I’ve been leaning on this year is global liquidity, and so far it’s played out pretty well outside of crypto. Precious metals and equities have both responded positively as money supply keeps expanding across most major economies.

To put some rough numbers around it:

• U.S. M2 is growing at around 4%

• Europe is closer to 3%

• China is still running much hotter, near 8%

On top of that, the Fed (i.e, the US central bank and the most impactful on global financial markets) officially stopped quantitative tightening back in December. That doesn’t mean QE is coming tomorrow, but it does remove a meaningful headwind. From a macro point of view, this is still a supportive environment for assets that benefit from currency debasement.

What’s been frustrating is that crypto hasn’t followed suit. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have underperformed badly despite these tailwinds. I don’t think there’s a single reason for that, but a big part of it looks mechanical rather than fundamental. A lot of long-term holders, people who’ve held through multiple cycles, started selling aggressively around the $100k area. The whole four-year cycle top narrative probably didn’t help either.

The good news is that this selling pressure seems to be easing. Recent on-chain data shows whale selling slowing down, and in some cases flipping back to accumulation. If that trend continues, Bitcoin has plenty of room to catch up to assets like gold, which have already responded to the same macro forces.

I think the macro backdrop remains positive for the first quarter of 2026.

Portfolio Update & Reasoning

With the journey officially kicking off today, the priority was getting initial exposure, but without going all-in. Personally, I’m comfortable starting here. Macro conditions are supportive, on-chain data is improving, and Bitcoin appears to have found a floor just above $80k. If anything, this feels more like a discount.

The portfolio is now 60% deployed across five positions: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and LINK. These are what I consider the stronger names in crypto, the blue chips. They’re large, liquid, and are showing relative strengths versus Bitcoin. I expect them to outperform if conditions improve.

Although I’m optimistic about the market, but I also have to respect that the broader market has underperformed. It’s possible there’s a factor I’ve missed, or that I’m simply wrong and this is the start of a bear market.

Because of that, I’ve placed stop losses on every position. Each trade is sized so that, if the stop is hit, I lose no more than 1% of total capital per asset. The stops sit just below key swing lows, levels that would clearly invalidate the thesis.

Based on those stops, the combined position size comes to about 60% of the portfolio, risking a total of 5%. That feels appropriate for the current setup: engaged, but not overexposed.

Here’s the breakdown:

If Bitcoin breaks below $80k and holds there, I’ll exit all positions and reassess. In that scenario, I’d expect a deeper move, potentially toward $50k, with the rest of the market following. If/until that happens, I’m staying with the current exposure. I’ve also marked potential profit-taking levels for each position. For now, these are mental targets. If and when price reaches them, I’ll reassess based on structure and momentum at the time. I do expect new all-time highs this year but given recent weakness, caution makes sense until the market confirms it.

Education of the Week — Deploying New Capital

Putting new money to work is one of the hardest parts of investing. Should you go all in now? Wait for a pullback? Split the difference? The honest answer is that there’s no perfect solution. In most cases, once you know what you want to own, the safest approach is to spread your entry over time. Gradually deploying capital reduces the risk of bad timing. If prices fall, you buy more. If they rise, at least you’re already invested.

A few principles I try to stick to:

• Avoid all-in decisions unless there’s a very strong reason

• Keep some cash aside for drawdowns or clearer signals

• The more volatile the asset, the slower I deploy

• Always decide in advance what would prove the idea wrong — and when to exit

Knowing where you’re wrong is just as important as knowing why you’re right.

Closing Thoughts

There’s a lot to unpack in this market insight, and much more to explain in detail. I’ll cover this gradually in future updates, focusing on one concept, metric, or indicator at a time so it stays clear and manageable.

On the portfolio side, I’m comfortable with this starting position and plan to hold these trades over the coming weeks, potentially months. This journey is about staying patient, managing risk, and letting market conditions drive decisions.

For now, I hope you all had a great New Year’s Eve and are ready for a stronger 2026.

Trilux