Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update:

No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update:

Bitcoin remains stuck in the same $65k–$75k range and is now approaching the top of that range. As long as price stays below the short-term holder realized cost, currently around $80.5k, my view remains unchanged. I still expect this range to eventually resolve to the downside. Until then, the plan remains the same:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

Education of the week: Understand Bitcoin cycle

Following on a last week's concept, and using the halving event as a reference point, we can anchor each Bitcoin cycle, from halving to halving, and overlay them. This is where the similarities become clear. First, we see diminishing returns with each cycle, as every subsequent bull market delivers less explosive growth than the previous one. More importantly, Bitcoin exhibits a highly unusual timing pattern for financial markets. On average, cycle tops have occurred between 370 and 540 days after the halving, a fairly wide range but still useful as a framework. Cycle bottoms, on the other hand, have historically taken place around 900 days post-halving, which would point to a potential bottom for this cycle around late October.

As I mentioned last time, I believe this pattern will eventually break. Tracking global liquidity will likely be the most important factor going forward, and I’ll explain why in future insights. That said, until the pattern does break, it makes sense to continue using it. No need to overcomplicate things.

As previously stated, if Bitcoin drops below $55k, I will begin gradually accumulating, spreading my allocation from the time it crosses that level through late October. This approach combines the cycles as timing tool and MVRV as price analysis to form a complete strategy. If anything unusual occurs, such as central banks launching QE or any of my proprietary indicators flashing a buy signal, I will adjust the plan accordingly.

Until then, this is the strategy. The plan stays the same.

Trilux