Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight after a short break.

Portfolio Update:

 No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update:

Bitcoin has now broken structure on the daily timeframe, meaning the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes are all bearish. The odds of further downside have increased compared to a month ago, which is what I have been expecting. The question now is whether Bitcoin still breaks below $55k, or whether the market bottoms around the $60k area after enough time has passed. This pullback has taken longer than expected, and price has also stayed higher than expected. That does not invalidate the broader view, but it does open the door to a different type of bottom. Instead of price capitulating quickly into the deep-value zone, Bitcoin may spend more time chopping around until sellers are exhausted.

For now, my base case remains lower prices. But I will be watching closely for signs that Bitcoin is starting to form a time-based bottom instead. If price holds around the $60k area for long enough, and on-chain data begins improving, then entering around that level could make sense even if $55k is never reached.

For now, the plan remains the same:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

Education of the Week: Price vs Time Capitulation

Capitulation is usually described as the moment when investors give up. In crypto, people often imagine that as a sharp crash. Price falls hard, fear spikes, weak holders sell, and the market resets quickly. That is price capitulation. But there is another version that is just as important: time capitulation. Time capitulation happens when price does not crash much further, but the market stays weak for long enough that people slowly lose interest. There is no dramatic bottom, no clear panic candle, and no obvious moment where everyone gives up at once. Instead, the market grinds sideways, traders get bored, conviction fades, and sellers are gradually absorbed over time.

Both can reset a market. Price capitulation resets through pain. Time capitulation resets through boredom.

My current plan has been built around price capitulation. I want to start buying below $55k because that is where multiple valuation metrics point to deep value. But if Bitcoin does not reach that level and instead spends enough time around $60k, the market may still reset through time. In that case, the opportunity would not come from a perfect price level. It would come from sellers being exhausted, volatility fading, and on-chain data starting to improve.

That is why the plan needs to stay flexible. The goal is not to buy one exact number. The goal is to buy when risk is improving and the market is closer to the end of the reset than the beginning. For now, I still prefer patience. But I am watching for signs that time is doing the work price has not done yet.

The plan stays the same.

Trilux