Market Insight #25: On-Chain Value Zone
Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.
Portfolio Update:
I bought another $470 of Bitcoin this week. The plan is to continue buying 5% of the starting DCA capital into spot Bitcoin each week over 20 purchases. We are now 4 out of 20 purchases in.
Date | Bitcoin Price | Amount Invested | BTC Bought |
|---|---|---|---|
08.06.25 | $62,970 | $469 | 0.007512 |
15.06.25 | $65,829 | $470 | 0.00714 |
22.06.25 | $64.162 | $470 | 0.007325 |
29.06.25 | $60,485 | $470 | 0.007771 |
Market Update:
Bitcoin has not moved much this week, the DCA continues. Several Bitcoin bottoming models are now sitting very close together:
Realised Price: $53.4k
Cointime Price: $51.9k
Long-Term Holder Realised Price: $49.7k
Investor Price: $48.9k
CVDD: $48.9k
These models are ways to estimate where Bitcoin starts to look cheap based on cost basis, coin movement, and long-term holder behaviour. The important point is not that one model is right. It is that several different models are now pointing to the same area. That gives more weight to the zone and increases the chance that it could act as support, or even mark a bottoming area.
Right now, that area is roughly $49k to $53k. This is close to my original DCA zone below $55k. That gives me more confidence in the current plan. This does not mean price cannot fall. It can. But it does mean Bitcoin is close to a zone that has historically been attractive for long-term accumulation.
That is why I keep buying slowly. The plan stays the same.
Trilux
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