Market Insight #23 — Bitcoin First, Alts Later
Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.
Portfolio Update:
I bought another ~$470 of Bitcoin this week.
The plan is to continue buying 5% of the starting DCA capital into spot Bitcoin each week over 20 purchases. We are now 2 out of 20 purchases in.
Date | Bitcoin Price | Amount Invested | BTC Bought |
|---|---|---|---|
08.06.25 | $62,970 | $469 | 0.007512 |
15.06.25 | $65,829 | $470 | 0.00714 |
Market Update:
There is not much to update on the market this week. After a sharp move like the one we saw two weeks ago, it is normal for price to stabilise before making its next move. For now, continuing the DCA still makes sense.
From the four scenarios I laid out last week, we are currently tracking closest to scenario one or two. Either this was the bottom and Bitcoin starts moving higher, or Bitcoin ranges for a while before eventually breaking higher. Time will tell which one plays out. That said, nothing is confirmed yet. These things take time.
The four scenarios remain the same.
Scenario one: this is the bottom, and Bitcoin moves higher from here.
Scenario two: Bitcoin ranges for a while, then breaks higher.
Scenario three: Bitcoin continues lower, but does not go much below $40k.
Scenario four: Bitcoin enters a much deeper bear market and breaks below most historical models.
For now, the plan stays the same.
Education of the Week — Why Bitcoin First, Alts Later
You might be wondering why I am only buying Bitcoin right now. That is a fair question. The reason is simple. In weak markets, almost everything in crypto falls together. But altcoins usually fall more than Bitcoin. They are more volatile, have less liquidity, and carry more risk.
Bitcoin tends to recover first because it is the highest conviction asset in crypto. It has the strongest track record, the deepest liquidity, and the broadest investor base. When confidence returns, capital usually flows into Bitcoin before moving further out on the risk curve. Altcoins can outperform later, but they usually need a stronger market backdrop first.
After a major drawdown, investors are still cautious. Many altcoins have fallen 80% or 90% from their highs, so it takes time for confidence to return. Even when the bottom is in, most people do not immediately rush back into higher-risk assets. That is why I prefer to start with Bitcoin.
Think of it like the tide. When the tide is going out, everything struggles, but the smaller boats usually suffer more. When the tide comes back in, Bitcoin is usually the first asset to show strength. Once that strength is clearer, then it can make sense to rotate further down the risk curve.
There will always be a few altcoins that outperform early. The problem is identifying them ahead of time is extremely difficult. Right now, only a small number of assets are outperforming Bitcoin. Picking the right one is possible, but the odds are not attractive enough for me yet.
I find it cleaner to start with Bitcoin, let the market prove itself, and then look at alts when conditions improve.
That does not mean I will ignore altcoins forever. It means I want the tide back first.
The plan stays the same.
Trilux
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