Market Insight #26: DCA Continues
Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.
Portfolio Update:
I bought another $470 of Bitcoin this week.
The plan is to continue buying 5% of the starting DCA capital into spot Bitcoin each week over 20 purchases. This is now purchase 5 out of 20.
Date | Bitcoin Price | Amount Invested | BTC Bought |
|---|---|---|---|
08.06.26 | $62,970 | $469 | 0.007512 |
15.06.26 | $65,829 | $470 | 0.00714 |
22.06.26 | $64.162 | $470 | 0.007325 |
29.06.26 | $60,485 | $470 | 0.007771 |
06.07.26 | $63,000 | $470 | 0.00746 |
Market Update:
Again, there is not much to update on the market this week. Price has been fairly stable. For now, Bitcoin is still trading between two important levels. The first level is $58k, which is the latest low. A break below that would make scenario three more likely, where Bitcoin continues lower before finding a bottom. The second level is the short-term holder realised price, which now sits around $68k. A break above that would be a stronger sign that the market is starting to recover. Regardless of which level breaks first, the DCA continues.
As covered last week, several Bitcoin valuation models are now pointing to the same value zone. Realised Price, Cointime Price, Long-Term Holder Realised Price, Investor Price, and CVDD are all clustered around the $49k to $53k area. That confluence is the reason the DCA continues regardless of which scenario plays out next. The scenarios are not there to change the plan every week. They are there as a mental model. They help set expectations for what the average entry price could look like.
If scenario one plays out, this may have been the bottom, and the average entry will likely be higher. If scenario two plays out, Bitcoin may range for a while, and the DCA will build exposure over time. If scenario three plays out, Bitcoin moves lower, and the DCA gets to buy at better prices. Scenario four remains the tail risk, where Bitcoin breaks below most historical models and the bear market becomes deeper than expected.
For now, scenario one and two remain possible. Scenario three becomes more likely below $58k. Scenario one becomes more likely above $68k. Either way, the plan does not need to change. The goal is not to buy the exact low. The goal is to build exposure while Bitcoin is trading near a long-term value zone.
The plan stays the same.
Trilux
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