Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update

No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update

Still not much to comment on. Bitcoin has been trending lower, but it’s still stuck in that $65k–$75k range for the past 7 weeks. Let’s see how much longer it takes to break out. As a rule of thumb, the longer it consolidates in a range, the more explosive the eventual move usually is. I still expect the breakout to eventually be to the downside, so my plan remains the same:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

Education of the Week — The Importance of Having a Plan

You’ve probably heard the saying: the house always wins. Casinos win because they have a small edge. The odds aren’t 50/50, they’re slightly in their favor. Over thousands of bets, that small edge compounds. Investing works the same way. You don’t need a perfect strategy. You just need an edge, and more importantly, the discipline to stick to it.

For me, that edge is having a clear plan and following it. As I’ve said for months, my plan is simple. I want to buy Bitcoin below $55k because that’s where I see deep value. I also have a clear invalidation. If we never get there, I step back, reassess, and build a new plan. That framework is my edge.

The reason this matters is because Bitcoin is extremely volatile, and volatility creates strong emotions. Greed on the way up, fear on the way down. Without a plan, most people fall into the same pattern. They buy high out of FOMO, sell low out of panic, and constantly change their view. At that point, it’s no longer investing but emotional decision-making.

A plan removes that. It forces you to think clearly when the market is quiet, rather than when your emotions are elevated. Even a simple, imperfect plan that you follow consistently will outperform most people who react to headlines and short-term moves. The goal isn’t to be perfect. It’s to be disciplined.

The plan stays the same.

Trilux