Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.
This is an important one. After months of patience, I made the first Bitcoin purchase.

Portfolio Update:

I allocated 5% of the portfolio, our roughly $470 per week, into spot Bitcoin. The plan from here is to continue buying 5% of the portfolio each week over the next 20 weeks, including this week. If the full schedule plays out, the portfolio will gradually become fully allocated to Bitcoin over that period.

Market Update:
I have sounded like a broken record for months, calling for caution and expecting lower prices. Even then, I am surprised by how quickly the market moved once the breakdown started. Bitcoin is already back around $60k, erasing months of gains in a few weeks. Other large crypto assets, including ETH and SOL, are down more than 35% from their May highs.

This is why sticking to the plan matters. I did not chase the move higher, and I did not give in to FOMO. The portfolio stayed in cash, avoided the drawdown, and now has dry powder ready to deploy.
My original plan was to begin DCA below $55k. We are not there yet, so it is fair to ask why I am starting now. The answer is that enough signals are now lining up to justify starting gradually.

First, roughly half of Bitcoin holders are now underwater. Historically, that has often happened near major bottoming zones.

Second, we are now more than 250 days from the cycle top. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have often lasted around one year, which still points toward a potential low around October. That timing also fits the 20-week DCA plan. Buying 5% per week spreads the allocation into the period where a cycle low has historically been more likely.

Third, some of my technical indicators are starting to flash potential reversal signals.

None of this means the bottom is in. This is not a bottom call. It simply means the risk-reward has improved enough for me to start moving from full patience to gradual accumulation.
I am starting a structured DCA because Bitcoin is now close enough to my value zone, and enough signals are lining up, that waiting for the perfect level now carries its own risk.

There are four scenarios from here.
- Scenario one: this is the bottom, and Bitcoin moves higher from here. (+10%)
- Scenario two: Bitcoin ranges for a while, then breaks higher. (40%)
- Scenario three: Bitcoin continues lower, but does not go much below $40k. (45%)
- Scenario four: Bitcoin enters a much deeper bear market and breaks below most historical models. (5%)

I still lean toward scenario three. I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trade lower over the next few weeks. But I assign low odds to scenario four at this stage. The important point is this: I believe Bitcoin will trade materially higher over the next two to three years. If that thesis is right, the difference between starting at $60k and waiting for $55k matters less than missing the broader accumulation window entirely. That does not mean price cannot fall. It probably can. That is why I am buying slowly over the next five months.

Education of the Week — Discount vs Confirmation

There are two broad ways to enter a market: buying at a discount or waiting for confirmation. Buying at a discount means entering when price has already fallen far enough that long-term value looks attractive, even if the trend still looks weak. This is uncomfortable because the market usually still feels bad. Price can keep falling after the first entry. The benefit is that capital is deployed before the crowd feels confident again.

Waiting for confirmation means waiting until price clearly proves that the trend has changed. This feels safer because momentum has returned. The downside is that confirmation usually comes at a higher price. By the time the market feels good again, a large part of the move may already have happened.
Neither approach is perfect.

Buying the discount gives better prices but more short-term uncertainty. Waiting for confirmation gives more comfort but worse prices. The right choice depends on the setup. Bitcoin has already fallen a lot. A large part of the market is underwater. Valuation metrics are much closer to attractive levels. Cycle timing is moving closer to the window where bottoms have historically formed. That is why I am comfortable starting before full confirmation. I am not trying to catch the exact low. I am trying to build exposure during a period where long-term value is improving. If Bitcoin moves lower, I buy more at better prices. If Bitcoin moves higher, I have started building the position. That is the point of DCA.

This is still a process, not a guarantee. Bitcoin can always go lower than expected, and every strategy has trade-offs. But at this stage, I would rather start accumulating gradually than wait for perfect conditions that may never arrive.

That is the updated plan.

Trilux