Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight after a little break.

Portfolio Update:

No changes. Still 100% in cash.

Market Update:

Bitcoin traded for a few days above its short-term holder realized cost and is now back below it. This supports my current view, as it increases the chance that we still see further downside. If Bitcoin were to hold above that level for an extended period, say two weeks or more, then I would need to seriously reconsider the market structure and adjust the strategy. But for now, that has not happened.

. Until then the plan remains the same:

• Below $55k, I begin scaling in

• Above $55k, patience

Education of the Week — Why Holding a Level Matters

One common mistake in investing is reacting too quickly when price crosses an important level. A level only matters if price can hold it. Bitcoin briefly traded above the short-term holder realized cost, which is the average entry price of recent buyers. That was worth paying attention to. But price has now moved back below it, which tells me the market has not fully accepted that higher range yet.

This is why I prefer to wait for confirmation. A quick move above a level can happen for many reasons. Temporary buying pressure, traders chasing momentum, or short-term reactions to news. But if price cannot stay above that level, the signal is weak. Holding above a level for several days or weeks is different. It shows that buyers are willing to support price there, and that sellers are no longer strong enough to push it back down.

That is why I mentioned the two-week window. If Bitcoin can hold above the short-term holder realized cost for long enough, I would need to reassess the current view. But if it fails and moves back below, the original framework remains intact.

For now, that is what we are seeing. Bitcoin tested the level, failed to hold it, and the plan stays the same.

Trilux