Hello everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market insight after a long holiday!

Portfolio Update:

I bought roughly $336 of Bitcoin this week. This is now purchase 13 out of 20, with 7 weekly purchases remaining. The DCA timeline still runs into October.

Market Update:

Bitcoin has continued to move in the right direction this week and is up over 20%. The decision to increase portfolio exposure to over 60% is working well so far, but more importantly, the market is beginning to show some of the confirmation I was looking for when increasing that allocation. Bitcoin is now firmly above the short-term holder realised price. This means recent buyers are, on average, back in profit and creates a healthier environment for price to continue higher.

The next major level I am watching is around $83k. This is the current market structure high and, in my view, one of the key levels separating the current price recovery from a full on bull market. If Bitcoin can break above $83k and hold there, I would become significantly more confident in Scenario 1: that $58k was the bottom of this bear market.

Until that happens, the plan remains the same. I will continue to DCA the remaining capital. Should Bitcoin closes above $83k, then the risk-rewards changes and I would consider moving towards full allocation. That would mean allocating entirely to Bitcoin into a small number of altcoins that look promising. Will cross that bridge if/when we get there.

For now, $83k remains the level to watch.

Education of the Week: Why Buying Higher Can Actually Be Safer

It sounds counterintuitive, but sometimes buying an asset at a higher price can actually involve less risk. The reason comes down to confirmation. If you remember from a previous Market Insight, we discussed the concept of support and resistance. Right now, Bitcoin is approaching an important resistance level around $83k. Resistance is an area where sellers have previously been strong enough to stop price from moving higher. As long as Bitcoin remains below that level, there is still a meaningful chance that price gets rejected and proceeds back lower.

But if Bitcoin breaks above $83k and manages to stay above it,  then the old resistance can become new support. That gives us a much clearer reference point for risk.

You can think of it like crossing a bridge. You could try to cross before the bridge has been fully tested. If it holds, you get to the other side earlier, but you are taking on more uncertainty. Or you can wait until the bridge is complete and has proven that it can support the weight. You may cross later, but the path is clearer and the risk is easier to manage.

Markets work in a similar way.

Buying Bitcoin below $83k may give you a cheaper price, but you are also buying before the market has proven that it can overcome resistance. Buying after a confirmed break means paying a higher price, but you now have additional information. The market has demonstrated strength, the previous resistance can potentially act as support, and there is a clearer level that would tell you if the investment thesis is beginning to fail.

Sometimes it makes sense to pay a slightly higher price in exchange for greater confirmation and a clearer risk-management framework. That is why I am comfortable continuing the DCA while Bitcoin remains below $83k, rather than rushing to become fully allocated. If the market gives the confirmation I am looking for, the allocation can change with it.

Until then, the plan stays the same.

Trilux