Hello everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market insight!

Portfolio Update

I bought another $336 of Bitcoin this week, and also allocated $435 to Solana, $435 to Dogecoin, and $220 to SUI. The portfolio is now fully allocated.

Market Update

Last week, in the face of two of the most bearish pieces of news we've had in a while, Bitcoin and the rest of the market grinded higher regardless. First, the CLARITY Act, which was supposed to bring regulatory clarity to crypto by establishing a framework for digital assets and defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC, failed to pass the Senate. Second, the Fed raised interest rates.

Normally, both of those would be bearish for the market. Instead, Bitcoin reclaimed $83k, which in my book marks a clear shift from bearish to bullish. I'm confident now saying $58k was the low, and the next target is a move back toward $120k. That doesn't mean price can't pull back, but I think it's very unlikely we revisit $53k.

On top of that, alts have started showing relative strength, which is why I allocated the remaining DCA capital to Solana, Dogecoin, and SUI. Doge and SUI were both sitting at multi-year lows against Bitcoin, making this a relative-value play. Solana, on the other hand, has been showing genuine relative strength against Bitcoin rather than just being cheap. All three have meaningful adoption behind them, even Doge. I'm watching these positions more closely than the core BTC allocation, since they're shorter-term plays. I'd expect this to run anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, but I'll cut it short if the setup turns. Volatility is high right now, in both directions.

Education of the Week — Relative Valuation

When Bitcoin goes up, it's usually measured in dollar terms, going up against the dollar. Relative valuation just swaps the dollar out for another asset, in this case Bitcoin itself. So when an asset shows relative strength against Bitcoin, it means that asset is appreciating faster than Bitcoin is, not just going up in dollar terms.

In crypto, almost everything moves with Bitcoin most of the time. A token going up 10% in dollars doesn't tell you much if Bitcoin is also up 10%. The more useful question is what's happening on the BTC pair. If an asset is gaining against Bitcoin, it means capital is rotating into it specifically, not just riding the broader wave.

This works in both directions. An asset can be a relative-value play, sitting at multi-year lows against Bitcoin, where the bet is that it's oversold and due to catch up. Or it can show relative strength, already outperforming Bitcoin, where the bet is that the trend continues. Doge and SUI this week are examples of the first. Solana is an example of the second.

The plans stays the same.

Trilux