Hello everyone, and welcome back to this week’s market insight!

Portfolio Update:

I bought roughly $336 of Bitcoin this week. This is now purchase 13 out of 20, with 7 weekly purchases remaining. The DCA timeline still runs into October.

Market Update:

Not much to update from last week. Bitcoin's volatility has cooled down, and price is mostly sitting still for now. The DCA plan stays active, and I'm watching for the next real move, either a break above $83k or a retrace lower.

We're also getting closer to the end of the four-year cycle window, which has historically pointed to October for a cycle low. The longer we hold these levels without breaking down, the more it looks like $58k was the bottom. That's my read on it right now, but I'd still like to see $83k break before saying it with real confidence.

Until then, the plan stays the same. The DCA continues.

Education of the Week — Volatility Compression

When price stops moving much, volatility is compressing, meaning price is trading around equilibrium for now. Buyers and sellers are close to balanced, both sides trading at roughly the same volume. The longer this equilibrium persists, the more volatility compresses, and the more explosive the eventual move tends to be, as one side of the market is eventually forced to unwind unprofitable positions.

This is currently what's happening with Bitcoin. Price has been going sideways, or compressing, for more than three weeks now. Volatility compression doesn't tell us which side the move will favor, only that the eventual move is likely to be volatile.

Kind of like when the kids go quiet, you know something is brewing.

Until then, the plan stays the same.

Trilux