Hello everyone, and welcome to this week’s market insight.

Portfolio Update:

I bought roughly $336 of Bitcoin this week. This is now purchase 8 out of 20, with 12 weekly purchases remaining. The DCA timeline still runs into October.

Market Update:

Not much to update this week. Bitcoin remains a few percent below the short-term holder cost basis, which is still around $68k. This remains an important level to watch. The interesting part is that short-term holders do not seem to be exiting their positions at the same rate as the last time Bitcoin traded around this area. That suggests selling pressure may be weaker this time.

This does not confirm a new bull market yet. For that, Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the short-term holder cost basis and hold above it. But it is a positive sign.

If Bitcoin can move above $68k and stay there, the chances of a new uptrend increase. Either way, the DCA continues.

Education of the Week: Why Smaller Drawdowns Matter

In bear markets, price usually falls in waves. The first wave lower is often sharp because investors are surprised. The next waves can tell us a lot about how much selling pressure is still left in the market. If each move lower becomes less severe, it can be a sign that sellers are starting to lose control.

Bitcoin’s recent drawdowns have looked roughly like this:

• First leg lower: -36%

• Second leg lower: -38%

• Latest leg lower: -30%

This is not a perfect pattern, but the latest drawdown has been smaller than the previous major move lower. It suggests that even though price is still weak, the market may be absorbing selling better than before. Fewer people may be panic selling. More buyers may be stepping in. And the downside may be starting to lose momentum. This does not mean the bottom is guaranteed to be in.

Bitcoin can still move lower. A smaller drawdown is only one piece of the puzzle. But when smaller drawdowns line up with other signals, such as value models clustering near the same area, short-term holder selling slowing down, and a bottom indicator flashing, it becomes more interesting.

That is why the DCA continues.

The plan stays the same.

Trilux